Overview of the WMO High Impact Weather Project

Severe weather events, like storms, floods, and heatwaves, pose serious risks to our communities, nature, and economies. Factors like climate change, population growth, and urbanization make us more exposed and vulnerable to these hazards.

Thankfully, science has made great strides in understanding, predicting, and monitoring weather. Sophisticated tools and services help us stay informed. But even with all this progress, major disasters still highlight the gap between what we know and how we apply that knowledge to everyday challenges. We need to bridge that gap to protect ourselves and our planet.

What is the High Impact Weather project?

The High Impact Weather (HIWeather) project aims to help us become better prepared for extreme weather events worldwide. How? By improving forecasts - from minutes to two weeks ahead - and researching ways to make sure that information reaches everyone effectively. The project is a ten-year effort to enhance our ability to handle weather challenges, finishing in 2024. It is part of the World Meteorological Organization's (WMO) World Weather Research Programme (WWRP). (The WMO loves acronyms!) I have been part of this project pretty much since it started - first as part of the Communication Task Team, and then as co-leader for the past few years.

The HIWeather project focused on four key areas:

1. Evaluation and verification of weather forecasts and warnings

2. A book on making an effective weather warning system

3. Establishing the path for including citizen science in weather forecasts

4. Exploring impact-based forecasts and warnings.

Let's look at these in more detail.

1. Evaluation and verification of weather forecasts and warnings

Imagine a world where weather warnings are seamless, timely, and effective. It’s not just about predicting storms or floods - it’s about connecting the dots across a network of experts, communicators, and decision-makers. This is called the Warning Value Chain, a concept advanced by the High Impact Weather project for weather warnings, in collaboration with the WMO WWRP Societal and Economic Research Applications Working Group.

Schematic value chain for weather warnings (from Golding et al. 2019).

The Warning Value Chain project ran from 2021 – 2024. It investigated how information flows from observing what is happening in the atmosphere, to modelling and forecasting the hazards and impacts, right through to communicating and acting on the information. The Warning Value Chain project looked at how we can evaluate each step in that process, to identify any weak links.

The project team was super productive, making all sorts of helpful things like a glossary, detailed questionnaire and rapid assessment template for reporting about what happened during a severe weather event, reports and publications. You can see videos on how to use the Value Chain on the HIWeather website - anyone can contribute case studies.

So next time you see a weather warning, remember: it’s not just a forecast - it’s a symphony of collaboration, keeping us one step ahead of the storm.

2. A book on making an effective weather warning system

The HIWeather project researchers wrote a book called 'Towards the "perfect" weather warning: Bridging disciplinary gaps through partnership and communication', edited by Brian Golding (my HIWeather co-chair from the UK Met Office). The value chain framework was used to describe the partnerships needed for effective weather warnings.

The freely available book is for professionals – meteorologists, emergency managers, risk reducers - but also for curious minds. It is about making weather warnings more effective in saving lives, property, livelihoods, and infrastructure.

So pour yourself a cup of tea and settle in for a good read!

In the book, the warning process is described as a pathway linking each step along the value chain. Five bridges represent the communication, translation, and interpretation of information as it passes over the divide from one area of expertise to another (scroll back up to the value chain image to see this).  The required partnerships are described in the book, including the expertise that each partner brings, the challenges of communication between them, and the structures and methods of working that build effective partnerships.

Starting with the decision-maker, the book chapters move along the value chain and over the bridges, emphasising the importance of co-design and co-production in the warning process.

The book was written by 49 co-authors from around the world as part of the High Impact Weather project, and has a foreword by Ms Mami Mizutori, the UN Secretary General's special representative for disaster risk reduction. You can access it for free, here. Keep an eye out for Chapter 3 (I'm a co-author!).

Chapter 3 of the book 'Towards the "perfect" weather warning'

3. Establishing the path for including citizen science in weather forecasts

The Citizen Science project brought together a series of activities from around the world to showcase how members of the public can contribute to advancing our knowledge about high impact weather.

An example is how the Ghana Meteorological Agency is collecting observations about the weather from the public using WhatsApp. These important contributions have helped them to evaluate and improve their forecasts.

Another example is how citizens all around China have collected hailstones to help researchers from Peking University. People pick up the hailstones carefully, store them in their freezer, and record where and when they were collected. The researchers travel to collect the hailstones, and conduct scientific experiments on them to advance their understanding of the chemical composition of the hail. This then feeds into better forecasting of hail in future, to help their impacts be reduced.

Hailstone samples. Images from www.HIWeather.net, provided by the Research Group of Hail from Peking University

Two World Meteorological Organization Guidance Notes were produced by the High Impact Weather project team members for the Citizen Science initiative.

The first Guidance Note was written to help groups and agencies increase interest in citizen science, and guide project leaders to raise key questions as they start their own citizen science projects.  This includes thinking about the overall purpose of the project, the level of involvement that the public will have, ethical considerations, and project outcomes.

The second Citizen Science Guidance Note provides tools and insights for groups and agencies who are embarking on crowdsourcing weather projects.  The different types of crowdsourcing approaches are described, as well as the ways data can be collected. This ranges from weather stations owned by the public, to dedicated mobile phone applications, to social media and emails.

Citizen Science has a significant role in bridging knowledge gaps. The High Impact Weather project has paved the way forward to help have meaningful engagement with diverse communities, whilst harnessing the power of the crowd to gather essential weather data.

4. Exploring impact-based forecasts and warnings

One way to provide more meaningful weather warnings is to trigger them based on the level of expected impact – such as what the damage might be - rather than on the forecasted hazard – such as predicted wind speed.  Called ‘impact-based warnings’, there was little known about whether they were actually more effective at helping people respond.  

The High Impact Weather project investigated this. Research was conducted around the world, including by our team in New Zealand, finding mixed results on the effectiveness of impact-based warnings in comparison to the more traditional hazard-based approach. Researchers also looked into the availability of data underpinning impact-based warnings and found a need for strong interagency partnerships. An international workshop series identified several key challenges that agencies face when developing impact-based warning systems, and some solutions.  

Summary slide of the HIWeather impact-based forecast and warnings project. The countries in red on the map indicate where the workshop registrants were from.

Overall, the project found that a cautious approach should be taken when moving towards an impact-based weather warning system. Considerations should be made as to how much benefit a costly and sophisticated risk modelling system would give in comparison to a simpler approach such as describing more general impacts. Research directions have been identified by the High Impact Weather project to help fill these knowledge gaps - these will be published and available soon.  

The HIWeather project legacy

Across continents and time zones, the High Impact Weather project has driven important research to help advance the mitigation of severe weather events. It has demonstrated the value of interdisciplinary research that is connected to practice. It leaves the legacy of tools, templates, a database, and publications, and directions for future research. The project has built a strengthened global network of researchers, so we can continue to learn from one another. It has also helped to grow tomorrow’s scientific leaders.

Through the work of the High Impact Weather project, we are closer to bridging the gap between advanced scientific knowledge and its application. Together, we are reducing the impacts of future severe weather events.